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CES Preview: What We Expect in 2009

In the midst of the sharpest recession in memory, will anyone care about the latest gadgets and gizmos?

That depressing question will be hanging over the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas this January, as buyers, retailers, enthusiasts, and reporters will gather in Las Vegas to either herald the economy's resurgence, or damn the show as just another Comdex or Macworld.

Naysayers say that attendance will be down, that exhibitors will flee the show floor in favor of cheaper hotel rooms and café meetings, and that consumer electronics companies will scale back to the tried, true, and profitable.

In a bid to steal some thunder, companies exhibiting at CES are already leaking or publicizing the announcements they'll make at the show. Moreover, the official press day opens on Jan. 7, where the flood of new product announcements will begin.

Meanwhile, PCMag.com analysts and reporters have been working the back channels, and here's what we expect the largest electronics trade show will offer when its doors open on Jan.8. As in past years, you can expect PCMag.com to have all the announcements as they happen.

The first question: attendance

Will CES be as big as the 2008 show in January 2008? The short answer: No. The show's attendance continues to decline. In June, the Consumer Electronics Association's final tally said that CES 2008 drew 141,150 attendees. That, in turn, was down from 143,695 in 2007. In 2008, 3,000 exhibitors showcased products across 1.85 million square feet of exhibition space, then a record for the show.

This January, the CEA expects CES to attract 130,000 attendees, an 8 percent decline. The exhibit space is also down, to 1.7 million square feet, and a CEA representative did not comment when asked if the space was entirely booked. The number of companies showing their wares has also decreased, dropping 10 percent to 2,700 companies.

"Given the tough economic times, all global industries are susceptible to consumer unease about their own personal finances. However, there is a silver lining," the CEA said in a statement. "As consumers spend more time at home, they increasingly consider CE products as necessities, not luxuries.

"And the 2009 International CES features with 2,700 exhibitors across 1.7 million net square feet of exhibit space, which is a strong indication of the resiliency of our industry," the CEA added. "Most importantly, our research shows that the average CES attendee conducts 12 meetings at the show, making CES attendance the most economical way to do business and generate new leads in the consumer electronics industry."

The products: what to expect

So what can consumers expect at CES? Although prices for new products are rarely disclosed, there is a truism in tech: new technology commands a premium. And premiums mean profits. The bottom line: expect CE manufacturers to push high-end technology mainstream as soon as possible, while cutting costs where they can.

In each category, we'll summarize what we expect out of CES, and what you should look for in product announcements.

HDTVs

HDTV manufacturers have regularly teased us with prototype flat-panel televisions with increasingly thin cabinet depths, and the 2009 CES show should showcase some ultra-thin models that will actually make it to stores later in the year. Some display technologies such as OLED (organic light emitting diode) already offer slim screens with a frame thickness that is measured in millimeters, and it will be interesting to see just how thin the LCD- and plasma-TV manufactures are looking to go with the 2009 models.

The light emitting diode (LED) continues to gain momentum as an environmentally friendly (mercury-free/efficient) light source for LCD televisions, and some LED-lit LCDs are already delivering enhanced picture quality compared to traditional LCDs that utilize fluorescent lighting systems. As LCD manufacturers strive to "go green", we're expecting to see an increased number of new LED-lit LCD televisions on the 2009 CES show floor.

Wireless HDMI technology that supports the transmission of full 1080p video will make its retail debut (finally) in 2009. Several companies have previously demonstrated prototype hardware, and the 2009 CES should provide a good look at what we can expect from the finished products.

The In's And Out's Of HDTV

Walk into your favorite electronics store these days and it's like stepping into the future. Big, flashy, flat panel TV's more reminiscent of movie screens than the TV's of old. And more letters and numbers than in a pentagon briefing book 720, 1080 LCD, DLP, Plasma. What they all add up to, is crystal clear, right in front of your eyes. This is a huge upgrade in television viewing for the consumer. There are three main types of HDTV's: Plasma LCD (liquid crystal display) and Rear-projection LCD. All three have obvious plusses and minuses. With plasma, if you're hanging it above a fireplace, a lot of times, it gives you better off-axis viewing and it also does a little better with fast motion. Having better viewing angles than an LCD screen, plamsa's are generally less expensive than LCD's. They feature deeper blacks in the picture but might show more glare in rooms with lots of light. Plasma TV's are also more suseptible to screen 'burn in' when a network logo or black bands stay on the screen after watching the same channel for a long time. This problem has largely been diminished in newer plasmas. With lcd, it's going to react a little better to light. So if you've got a bright room, a lot of windows, usually that will do better for you. LCD's rarely, if-ever, experience burn-in but if you can't sit directly in front of the t-v, the picture quality might look worse from the sides. LCD's used to have problems showing fast motion, like sports but those problems have been reduced lately. Now the detail is going to be there in both sets and you're going to get a great picture with either set, but we try to get the benefit for that particular customer. If you want to get the absolute biggest screen for your buck... check out a rear-projection LCD set. They come with technology names like 'DLP' and 'LCOS' They're thicker, but lighter than LCD and Plasma displays. They're also cheaper for bigger screens but they're powered by a light bulb that will have to be changed every few years, to the tune of about a couple hundred bucks. So how big a screen is right for your room? Measure how far your couch is from the television in inches, and then divide by three and then two. So if you sit 8 feet away, or 96 inches you come up with a 32 to 48 inch screen. The last decision you have to make: 720p versus 1080p. That refers to the number of sharp lines that make up your t-v's picture. You might think that 1080 is automatically better since there's more but experts say if your screen is less than 50 inches, you probably won't notice the difference. Right now, the only way to get a 1080 picture on your hdtv is to use a high definition DVD player or video game system american stations don't broadcast in 1080p, and probably won't for quite a while. Your new HDTV will probably be more expensive than the last set you bought. But sales people say they rarely hear complaints once people make the switch. Anytime someone sees that first ballgame or first race or watches the first movie, they say it's absolutely worth every penny at that point. Before you buy, check consumer guides like consumer reports and cnet dot com for detailed reviews of HDTV's. It's like buying a car, the more bells and whistles, the more expensive it's going to be.

Wireless LCD HDTVs?

By Michael Kassner at TechRepublic

PC Magazine has just released their list of what they consider “wacky Wi-Fi enabled products”. Some of them have been reviewed here on TechRepublic as well. I even posted about one example, the Wi-Fi Detector shirt. I have to admit that it very intriguing, but not to the point where I would run out to get one. So, I agree that it should be included in the “wacky” category. Some of the products are definitely not “wacky” though, at least in my opinion. In fact they are interesting to me and would appear to be compelling purchases or gifts to others as well.

Such as

Wi-Fi enabled HDTVs have many inherent uses and losing some of the cables is a definite advantage. So, I vote that LG’s 802.11n wireless LCD HDTV is not ‘wacky” and has the potential to do very well in the consumer market. Digital photo frames are also a great idea and when the pricing comes down I suspect they will become very popular. Thus I disagree with the assessment that the eStarling Wi-Fi Photo Frame is “wacky”.

The product that I considered the “coolest” of the “wacky” products was the Eye-Fi wireless SD card. It is a 2GB SD memory card with Wi-Fi hardware and firmware on board that will transfer the contents of the SD card to a computer via a wireless connection. How neat is that. I realize that some cameras are Wi-Fi enabled already, but this will allow those that aren’t to have the same ability and at a reasonable price. I also wonder if it would work in other devices that support SD cards?

Final thoughts

For once I boldly voiced my opinion, disagreeing with a major technical news entity. I wonder how many of you agree with my assessment of what is “wacky” and what is not?

Clearing Up Confusion over HDTV

This was a blog post from David Pogue of the NYTimes, technology. He interviewed a Best Buy employee who was able to clear up some misconceptions and misinformation on HDTV. Great read.

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Interview by David Pogue

According to the Consumer Electronics Association, this Sunday’s Super Bowl will inspire the sales of 2.4 million high-definition TV sets. That’s a lot of plasma. (And L.C.D., and projection sets.)

In my weekly CNBC/Times video today, I pulled what I thought would be a brilliant stunt: I’d interview a TV salesman at Best Buy, firing a lot of typical confused-consumer questions at him. Then, during playback of that interview, I’d keep pausing the tape to correct him or interject little asides.

Well, the “correcting him” bit didn’t work at all. Steve at the Best Buy in Norwalk, Conn., was amazing, easily one of the most fluent HDTV experts I’d ever met. He was unstumpable.

So here’s a paraphrased version of what I learned or confirmed from him. If you’re among the HDTV shoppers who have yet to buy your set for the big game, maybe the advice here will help you out.

Q: Is there a lot of consumer confusion about HDTV?

A: Oh, man, you have no idea. People come in here absolutely clueless. Or furious, because they bought an HDTV set, got it home, and discovered that the picture doesn’t look anything like it did here in the store. Because they don’t realize they need a high-def *signal* to feed that set. For example, they need to replace their cable boxes with digital ones, or put an antenna on the roof.

[D.P. adds: According to a study by the Leichtman Research Group, 50 percent of HDTV owners aren’t actually watching any high-def shows on them… but 25 percent of them *think* they are.]

Q: Isn’t it true, in fact, that standard-def broadcasts actually look *worse* on a high-def TV?

A: Unfortunately, yes.

Q: Don’t you guys deliberately put the store-display screens in “torch mode,” cranking the brightness and contrast all the way up to catch shoppers’ eyes?

A: We don’t adjust the sets to look that way; that’s the way most sets come from the factory. It actually makes the set look a lot worse than it will when you get it home and get it properly calibrated.

Q: Oh, you have to pay someone to come over and tweak the set?

A: You really should. We offer that service as part of installation.

[D.P. adds: How did I know he was going to say that?]

Q: O.K., here we go. One-word answer: plasma or LCD?

A: They both offer an amazing picture these days. In the better sets, the traditional flaws of plasma (like burn-in) and LCD (limited viewing angle, not very deep blacks, weak fast motion) have been largely eliminated.

The plasma screens still have glossy surfaces, though, and LCD sets are still brighter. So as a rough guideline, plasma has truer color and does better in darker rooms, and LCD has more vivid color and does better in bright rooms. (LCD is also lighter and more energy-efficient, but usually costs more for the same-size set.)

Q: OK, how about this one: 720p or 1080p?

A: These are measurements of how many fine lines make up the picture.

You’d think that 1080p is obviously better than 720p. Trouble is, you won’t get a 1080p image unless you feed it a 1080p signal — and that’s hard to come by. There’s no such thing as a 1080p TV broadcast (cable, satellite, anything), and won’t be for years. Even most games, like Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3, generally send out 720p (or less).

So the *only* way to get a 1080p picture on a 1080p set is to buy a high-def DVD player (Blu-ray or HD DVD). That’s the only way.

[D.P. adds: Even then, you won’t see any difference between 720p and 1080p unless you sit closer than 10 feet from the TV and it’s bigger than 55 inches or so.

And even then, you’re not getting any additional sharpness or detail. Instead, as CNET notes, you’re just gaining the ability to move closer without seeing individual pixels: “In other words, you can sit closer to a 1080p television and not notice any pixel structure, such as stair-stepping along diagonal lines, or the screen door effect (where you can actually see the space between the pixels).”]

Q: But a 1080p set costs a lot more than an identical 720p set, doesn’t it?

A: Yeah.

[D.P. adds: At this point, he showed me two plasmas, same brand, same size, same model line, mounted one above the other: one 720p, the other 1080p. The fancier set cost $2,000 more — and the image quality was pixel-for-pixel identical.]

Q: What’s the best-selling size?

A: It used to be 42 inches. Nowadays, 50-inchers are more common, and even larger, because prices have dropped so much.

Q: Is a bigger screen always better?

A: Depends on whether you ask the husband or the wife.

If you sit 8 to 10 feet back, a 50- or 60-incher is not too big. But you don’t want to overpower the room. If the screen dominates the room, it almost discourages relaxing, because it just towers over the space.

Q: What about rear-projection sets?

A: They’re great. And they’re often overlooked, because flat panels are all the rage. But the truth is, once you mount a flat-panel TV, it’s just as thick as today’s rear-projection sets (several inches from the wall).

Meanwhile, the quality of the rear-projection sets is amazing; it’s been improving every year. The downside is that you can’t sit as far off-angle as you can with a flat panel. But rear-projection sets offer the biggest size at the best price. And they weigh almost nothing. One person can lift one.

[DP adds: Except you do have to replace the bulb every few years, which can cost several hundred dollars… UPDATE: Although not on LED-driven sets!]

Q: How come you guys don’t have the remote controls on display?

A: We don’t like to put them on display, because every time I turn around, somebody’s turned a bunch of the TVs off.

Q: So of all the sets here, which is the very best one to buy for the Super Bowl?

A: Well, all of them will give you an absolutely great picture. But there’s one thing that none of these sets can do: they can’t make the Giants look good.

[D.P. adds: I’m not touching that one. Happy ’Bowling!]